Let’s see what happened between 2020 when none of this was happening and today that might make these nations feel like they have to be prepared for conflict… Total mystery…

And what disturbances do you mean?

This very article seems to be a prime example. Yes, NATO spending is up, and because of Russia conducting a violent unprovoked invasion of a sovereign territory in their area, and a general reduction in confidence that they can rely on USA and must fend for themselves. Trump’s schtick is mostly ‘America shouldn’t help so much, fend for yourself’. Even with somewhat elevated spending, would that offset the loss of capability that would come with the US just failing to live up to their NATO obligations when the time came?

Why would Putin kick off the Ukraine war immediately after his “agent” leaves office?

Because things were going to be as good as he could get them and the best opportunity was before the new administration could reverse course? In the most favorable Russia outcome, Trump might have followed through on threats to further reduce NATO contributions, but with Trump gone and a more NATO-friendly admin in place, things were going to get worse for Putin before they could get better. I vaguely recall some non-US situations that similarly could have greased the wheels for an easier annexation of Ukraine, so it’s not like the US is the only factor in such timing anyway, but don’t recall what specifics made me think of that.

Trump is not a Russian asset. He’s an easily-manipulated businessman

I will agree that it’s not a straightforward “Trump is a Russian agent”, but an “asset” is not an agent. He’s a convenient “friend” that is easily manipulated/bribed. He doesn’t have loyalty or anything like that to Putin, but he is plainly easy to manipulate, and Putin’s circle has been consistently in position to do that manipulation for decades. Others may be no saints, but Trump is comparitively easier to mess with because of just being terrible at the things he purports to be good at.

Broadly, I agree.

I would still worry as while they might not actively attack, they may happily just nope on out of helping any NATO allies. NATO allies are more self-sufficient than before, but NATO without US forces and equipment would be much weaker than an active US.

However, he might just go and pick up Greenland if things pop off. If NATO were chewing on a fight with Russia, I think it would be a safe bet that europe would barely spare the time to shake their head disapprovingly if US just went and occupied Greenland. I don’t think they’d actually do a hot war with western european nations, but could easily see them just ‘declaring’ ownership of Greenland and no one stopping them.

I concur that a fight against EU is just completely unlikely, I do think Venezuela is possible since his administration has pretty much been giving free reign and seems to have their heart set on it…

I don’t think having the US attack them is in the cards, but I could see them sitting such a conflict out.